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Tag: markets

  • The Oil Industry Explained

    what to expect: a basic explanation of the oil market in the context of Venezuela

    In the beginning of January, we saw the president of Venezuela and his wife captured and brought to the US on drug trafficking.

    Trump announced that US oil companies will rebuild the oil industry in Venezuela. In Trump’s words at a news conference “they were pumping almost nothing by comparison to what they could have been pumping” and “we are going to have our very large United States oil companies, the biggest anywhere in the world, go in, spend billions of dollars, fix the badly broken infrastructure, the oil infrastructure.”

    So what does this mean?

    According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, Venezuela has 303 billion barrels of oil reserves, the largest oil reserve in the world (2024). Chevron is the only U.S. oil company with active operations there. Trump said the US oil companies will pay directly for the rebuilding of crude infrastructure, and will be reimbursed (Kimball 2026).

    The History

    In 1976, Venezuela nationalized its oil industry. This resulted in the president at the time, Hugo Chavez, seizing assets from International companies to create state-owned Petróleo de Venezuela S.A. (PDVSA). Exxon and Conoco have billions of dollars in outstanding claims against Caracas from these moves (Kimball 2026). In Trump’s words it was one of the “largest thefts of American property.” It is alleged that Conoco is owed $10 billion and Exxon is owed around $2 billion (Kimball 2026).

    In the 1990s Venezuela produced 3.5 million barrels per day, with production today being at 800,000 barrels (Kimball 2026).

    In “The United States’ Aspirations for Venezuela’s Oil” on the Daily, they discuss the subject of the oil being “rightfully” owed to the US, the sentiment that is seen throughout US media and the Trump administration. The expert, Anatoly Kurmanaev dove into the oil industry in Venezuela, which took off in the 1920s. When the oil industry boomed in Venezuela, American Oil workers moved for work, creating a culture that blended America and Venezuela. “American” towns began to emerge, that grew into cities that resembled American way of life. Alongside this, America invested capital, as Venezuela became the largest exporter in the world. This oil wealth built up the country’s infrastructure. With the presence of major corporations, citizens began to realize how much of their countries profit went to foreign entities.

    This drove the rise of “resource nationalism.” This concept was that natural resources belong to the citizens of the state, and the wealth belongs to them. Leaders ran for office appealing to voters with this idea.

    OPEC was then formed, in large part to leaders in Venezuela, an entity that provides co-operation and alignment of the largest players in oil. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) involve the largest oil-producing and oil-dependent countries, including Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and Venezuela when it began in 1960. Today, it has 12 countries. The idea behind OPEC was agreeing on the amount of barrels produced, which would impact supply. This supply allowed for somewhat control over prices, which would impact the countries profit.

    After this first wave of nationalism, in the 80s, the price of a barrel of oil went down. Venezuela’s economy was so dependent on oil, that this caused the economy to struggle. After this was a period of “oil opening” policy. This welcomed foreign investment into the country, and reversed nationalization efforts.

    However, this effort was short lived. In 1999, Hugo Chavez became president of Venezuela. In 2002, Chavez replaced oil executives with political allies with limited experience. This resulted in employees being dismissed after strikes broke out and the oil production dropping. Chavez worked against the “oil opening,” and forced companies to give up control of the projects.

    Following Chavez’s death, in 2014, Venezuela entered a “pro-longed period of economic decline” (Kurmanaev 2026). Delcy Rodriguez, the now interim president, was tasked with turning the economy around. She was the minister of economy and finance, and has had significant improvements since she began.

    In 2022, Biden’s administration issued a license that allowed for a joint venture between Chevron and the PDVSA for oil. Later, in July 2025, the current administration granted a restricted license, allowing production but banning proceeds from going to Maduro’s government.

    Below is a graph provided in David Goldman’s for CNN:

    China and Russia both participate in Venezuela’s oil exchange. In November 2025, there was a 15-year extension of a joint-venture with Russian-linked companies with operations there (Kimball 2026).

    The Market

    Oil is a commodity, often time you hear in business the “commodities market.” These are raw materials used to create products. Oil is used for many products which are created at different points in the refining process. Refining, is the breaking down of crude oil into various parts, which can then be used for products. Oil is used in gas that fuels our vehicles and heats homes and businesses. From the U.S. Energy Information Administration, in 2023, the US consumed on average 20.25 million barrels of petroleum per day (petroleum is a term that encompasses both crude oil and petroleum products). Most crude oil is produced or imported and then refined into petroleum products, gasoline, diesel, heating oil, and jet fuel.

    source

    Commodity markets are more than just trading resources. The market has contracts for trading, which created commodity futures exchanges. This allows commodity producers to hedge, or avoid, risk that comes from price fluctuations (risk). This risk from price changes, gets sold or passed to others in the economy. The asset class has evolved over time, and has mutual funds, ETFs, notes, and other ways to participate in the market.

    The current oil market has growing supply and weak demand. The larger economy has struggled with inflation and affordability, contributing to the fallen demand. By making Venezuela a bigger supply of oil, western oil companies could produce and use more. This aligns with the priorities of US businesses, specifically, big tech in the United States. With the massive energy demanded for AI infrastructure, people are scratching their heads over how to fuel these projects.

    Lower prices however disincentivize US oil companies from further production. In the world of economics, incentives are important to understand human (and corporate) behavior. What will incentivize US companies to start doing business in Venezuela again? According to CNN, the PDVSA (Venezuelan state-owned oil and natural gas company), says its pipelines have not been updated in 50 years (Goldman 2026). With an estimated price tag of $58 billion to return to past levels of production (Goldman 2026).

    As of Sunday January 11th, the price of oil is $59.12 per barrel. The price went above $60 a barrel when oil was siezed from the US, but then fell to $57.

    There is a current embargo, an official ban on trade or commercial activity with Venezuela. With talks of the first oil tanker coming to the United States in the cming weeks.

    The Oil

    The reserves are located in the Orinoco belt and are heavy crude oil that requires a lot of effort to use. One analogy discussed by Mark Zandi and Ed Elson “What Venezuela’s Regime Change Means for Oil”, was how oil has a spectrum of good to bad. If the good oil was champage, the bad was like coffee grounds. The crude oil would be described on the end of the spectrum like coffee grounds, that requires companies to extract, refine, and then use the oil through technical and advanced processes. Before this happens, there are negotiations to how US companies will approach re-entering the oil businesses there.

    The actual production is 0.8% of global crude production, at 1 million barrels a day (Goldman 2026). Before the current regime, as previously discussed this is a decline from when the country produced 3.5 million barrels a day. During this decline, the country saw international sanctions and an economic crisis that furthered its impact, on top of the lack of attention and investment.

    The United States is the largest oil producer. The oil produced in the US is important for gasoline. The heavy oil that is Venezuela has is used for diesel, asphalt, and fuels for factories (Goldman 2026). Diesel has been in “tight supply around the world” largely because of previous sanctions on Venezuelan oil (Goldman 2026).

    Looking Forward

    Before moving operations back to the country, it is expected that U.S. producers will seek to recover claims of the oil seized back in the 1990s. Chevron is poised for growth, with a resource base already there and joint ventures with the PDVSA. Being apart of 23% of the nation’s output.

    Investors sent the shares of Chevron, Exxon Mobil, and ConocoPhillips up, the three largest U.S. oil companies. The market was bullish on the news, also with companies that help service oil, Slb, Halliburton, and Baker Hughers shares ending up.

    The turmoil of the country could prevent any production, however the current administration is pushing US oil companies to participate. In the newsletter sent out from the New York Times on January 9th, Trump sat down with oil executives and said that he expects at least $100 billion to rebuilt the oil infrastructure in Venezuela. Executives expressed their reservations and uncertainty with the stability of the nation, even using the term “uninvestable”. The interim government are working to establish diplomacy with the United States and potentially open back up the US embassy there.

    In Venezuela, there are armed groups, political loyalists to Maduro, as well as political adversaries. Rodriguez is under pressure of maintaining a stable rule of law and ensuring political stability. If this were to be achieved, the United States would gain a major source of oil production, driving oil prices down. This would potentially lower the cost of products, addressing the affordability crisis in the US. However like previously mentioned, this lies on the incentives of major corporation to participate. The production furthers Americas geopolitical power with oil, specifically with China and Russia.

    It will be interesting on what is to come with Venezuela and the oil market.

    source

    Works Cited

    While the media is in a frenzy, there have been some great discussions on the Daily Show done by Michael Barbaro and Prof G Markets with Ed Elson. This sparked my interest and inspired this work.

    Kurmanaev A., & Abrams, R. (Hosts). (2026, January 13). The United States’ Aspirations for Venezuela’s Oil [Audio podcast episode]. The Daily. Spotify. https://open.spotify.com/episode/632QIC2DC1KxoWSFyuelnO

    Goldman, D. (2026, January 3). Trump says U.S. is taking control of Venezuela’s oil reserves and recruiting American companies to refurbish its oil industry. CNN Business. https://www.cnn.com/2026/01/03/business/oil-gas-venezuela-maduro

    Kimball, S. (2026, Jan 3). Trump says U.S. oil companies will invest billions of dollars in Venezuela after Maduro’s overthrow. CNBC. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/01/03/trump-venezuela-oil.html

    Galloway, S., & Elson, E. (Hosts). (2026, January 6). What Venezuela’s regime change means for oil [Audio podcast episode]. In Prof G Markets. Prof G Media. https://open.spotify.com/episode/2ojrVz6ZkcJ4nMfk3WicLa

    McDaniel, W. (2025, June 11). Everyday products & uses [Fact sheet]. Colorado Oil & Gas Association. https://www.coga.org/factsheets/everyday-products-uses

    PIMCO. (n.d.). Understanding commodities. PIMCO. Retrieved January 13, 2026, from https://www.pimco.com/us/en/resources/education/understanding-commodities

    U.S. Energy Information Administration. (2024, February 8). Country analysis brief: Venezuela (PDF). U.S. Department of Energy. https://www.eia.gov/international/content/analysis/countries_long/Venezuela/pdf/venezuela_2024.pdf

    U.S. Energy Information Administration. (2024, October 9). How much oil is consumed in the United States? U.S. Energy Information Administration. https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=33&t=6

    U.S. Energy Information Administration. (2024, June 20). Refining crude oil — Inputs and outputs. U.S. Energy Information Administration. https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/oil-and-petroleum-products/refining-crude-oil-inputs-and-outputs.php

    The New York Times. (2026, January 9). Live Updates: Trump meets with oil executives at White House; Venezuela projects unity after Maduro’s ouster [Live blog]. The New York Times. Retrieved January 13, 2026, from https://archive.vn/2026.01.09-224841/https://www.nytimes.com/live/2026/01/09/world/venezuela-trump-us?campaign_id=57&emc=edit_ne_20260109&instance_id=169076&nl=the-evening&regi_id=175283365&segment_id=213443&user_id=cbf90162b8a099514002781c865b5201

  • A Guide To Goal Setting in the New Year

    what to expect: what i recommend to achieve new years resolutions in 2026

    December is a time for celebrating the Holiday’s with family and friends. It can be a deep breath after a year of hard work. This past year was a stressful one that took a lot of strength and resilience. While people are out of office, or on a much needed break between semesters of school, it is the perfect time to set intentions for the year to come.

    I appreciate the time of year to refresh my goals and vision, spending time reflecting and imagining.

    Reflection: The Key to Goal Setting

    The first step before I set goals for the New Year is having an open and honest reflection of my current state. It allows you to gain insight to move forward, appreciating where you are while also recognizing areas that you have room to grow.

    One journaling exercise is the four interior empires. The idea, originally introduced in “The 5 AM Club” by Robin Sharma, is your mindset, healthset, heartset, and soulset.

    The mindset focuses on personal development, learning, and growth. This is things like daily journaling, podcasts, writing, and other creative outlets.

    The healthset is all things physical. Working out, movement in general, sleep, hygiene and what we eat or drink.

    Our heartset is emotional well-being and relationships. The connections we have to other people and are ability to process and handle emotions.

    Lastly, our soulset is our belief in ourselves and purpose. This can be our value, outside of our external appearence or material items.

    These four quadrants make up ourselves. Draw a circle and split it into these four quadrants. Anything written inside the circle are things you do that focus on each empire. Anything outside of the circle is things you don’t do, or things that may have a negative impact on that area.

    picture information from here

    After filling in your sheet, try to rate from 0-25% for each quadrant. These four quadrants make up your whole 100% self. It is important to note that you cannot fulfill yourself with just one. While you may be fulfilled your fitness goals, hitting the gym, eating clean, and doing all the right things, you cannot reach 100%. You still have 75% of yourself. It is a reflection that can call attention to areas that you may be neglecting. This acts as a great eagle eye view of where you are thriving and where you can grow.

    Envision Your Future Self

    The next exercise you can do alongside the four interior empires is envisioning a future version of yourself. What values do they possess? How do they spend their time ? What do they have?

    I started by writing a list of things that my future self would say. Here are some examples: I prioritize my health, I eat whole foods, and I train consistently, not obsessively. I am a lifelong student. I make service a priority. I don’t need to drink to have fun, I have genuine relationships, and I say no when I need to re-charge. I have a unique and comfy space and I spend money on experiences more than things. By envisioning my future self, I have created a list of my values. Now try to connect these values and future state with actionable goals.

    Our goals can be long-term, medium-term, or short-term. With the reflection we have just completed, we are better able to set the standard for 2026.*

    *Set the Standard, a phrase I got directly from Nick Bare.

    Forward Think, Backwards Plan

    Then plan backwards. By imagining your end goal, you can then set up your week or months to create actionable steps to get there. What are the incremental changes that will get you there.

    If you are in the process of trying to better yourself, I highly recommend reading James Clear Atomic Habits. The book acts as a guide through bettering yourself every single day. In his words “small habits, when repeated consistently, lead to remarkable results.” A big downfall to New Year’s Resolutions, is that people set goals that are extreme and unsustainable. This leads to an “all-or-nothing mindset,” that when you make one small mistake or miss one day, that suddenly it is not worth it at all.

    The little things, really are the big things. Creating a set of daily habits that your future self would do can make a huge difference in achieving your goals.

    Building a habit takes time, with studies ranging from as short as 21 days to as long as five months, with the median being 59-66 days (Singh et al 2024). It is far from sexy to build a habit, it can be uncomfortable and unnatural. However, habits are everything to achieve your goals. You want to get in the gym, you have to create habits that align with being a person that does. The closer you align your habits with someone that does go to the gym, the more you associate your identity as someone who is fit and active. Identity has profound power in shaping habits.

    Currently, some habits I hold and recommend are: making your bed daily, reading for 20 minutes (at least), walk 10K steps, sleep eight hours, tidy up 10 mins before bed, skincare at night, and journal. The habits I am looking to build are to : hit my protein goal each day, drink 12 cups (~96 ounces) of water a day and begin waking up at 5 AM. These lists are not exhaustive, but you can use them as inspiration for some of yours.

    The FourMs in Goals: Markets, Money, Movement, and Mind

    Specific to the four areas this blog encapsulates, there are goals I want to focus on in the new year.

    For markets, I want to challenge myself to dive further into complex topics. I want to continue reading, however incorporate note-taking, and writing about said topics here. Mind or mentally, I want to keep taking active steps to understand and regulate my emotions, as well as continue to grow my positive mindset through journaling, therapy, and creative outlets. I strive to decenter technology from my hobbies as much as possible, while still fostering the knowledge tech allows me to access.

    For movement, as always I want to increase by aerobic and anaerobic endurance while also gaining strength. I want to have movement that promotes longevity and health, while also being an outlet for stress relief and enjoyment.

    For all goals related to fitness, I recommend changing any aesthetic goals to functional goals. When I was younger, I approached the gym as a way to change my body. I strived to be smaller, and struggled to get myself to the gym. I typically went, did cardio and abs, and saw little results. It was a form of self-loathing almost, always trying to change myself with each trip. I would tell myself, if I do 10 more minutes of cardio, then I will be that much better looking. No wonder I hated the gym.

    The most important aspect of fitness is consistency. Nick Barre, CEO of Bare Performance Nutrition always says, “It is better to do good consistently than great sometimes.” This quote has always resonated with me greatly. Progress in the gym comes from years of going to the gym consistently.

    Having functional goals makes the gym exciting and have purpose. I really enjoy to challenge myself physically, so I want to eventually do a Hyrox competition. I hope to run farther, and faster, as well as get my first pull up.

    Gym goals are great when you have a community. If you have someone you share your fitness goals with that you see often or can workout with, they can act as your accountability buddy. This will keep you energized and motivated, as you will build off each others progress.

    Lastly, money. I want to work towards my financial goals, investing time into my financial literacy.

    (all opinions are my own)

    When I first began investing in high school, I did what most competitive little sisters do, I bragged to my sister about my new knowledge. It was some of my first conversations around money. My sister and I have had conversations recently about personal finance; I encouraged her to invest, but the conversation usually resulted in her discomfort. She would joke when I talked about personal finance that she would one day “live in my pool house.” She always said money conversations would stress her out.

    Now looking back to when I first began talking to her about money, I did not know much of what I was talking about, but the importance was that I began. Over the years after, I committed time and effort to learning about personal finance. My sister held a fear that many relate to, that they don’t have the knowledge to invest. Fear of money prevents people from financial freedom and opportunity.

    What is Financial Literacy and what does it look like?

    According to the President’s Advisory Council on Financial Literacy in 2008 is the “ability to use knowledge and skills to manage financial resources effectively for a lifetime of financial well-being.”

    Financial literacy is feeling confidence in your budget, spending, and saving. It is knowing your options and deciding between them. It is devoting time to set goals and backwards plan. It is talking and thinking about money with your loved ones. It is created financial boundaries, and doing things that cause you the least stress.

    In my opinion, the first thing you can do, is put this prompt into ChatGPT. “I am X years old, I have Y forms of income, and Z outstanding debt. Give me all the financial considerations at my age with these goals…”. For me, AI is a great starting point, use this list to then find primary sources from knowledgable individuals. Always, always, take AI recommendations with a grain of salt. I viewed the first response as a way to get my brain moving, and the rest was doing my own research.

    The list of considerations I look into on a regular basis: income, budgeting, debt (credit cards, student loans, car loans, or private loans to name a few), insurance/healthcare, taxes, investing, and retirement planning.

    Plan one monthly date with yourself. During this time, treat yourself to a comforting food item or fun drink and open up your various accounts. Look through how you are spending and saving. Set some financial goals and going through various resources.

    some resources I have found helpful:

    Financial Feminist was the very podcast I have listened to about this subject, and I highly recommend checking out her content. I recently watched the Youtube video below that covered the major topics. She lives in Canada so this has a few different elements (tax-free investing in Canada has different names).

    Beginning to take time to understand your personal finances and set goals is essential to your livelihood and well-being. There is so much content online, so try to always fact-check and talk to friends/families/peers! Money can be scary, but begin to talk and interact with financial literacy topics to make it less daunting.

    works referenced

    Clear, James. (2018). Atomic habits: An Easy & Proven Way to Build Good Habits & Break Bad Ones . Penguin: Avery.

    President’s Advisory Council on Financial Literacy. (2008). 2008 annual report to the President. U.S. Department of the Treasury.

    Financial Literacy and Education Commission

    Singh, B., Murphy, A., Maher, C., & Smith, A. E. (2024). Time to form a habit: A systematic review and meta-analysis of health behaviour habit formation and its determinants. Healthcare (Basel, Switzerland), 12(23), 2488. https://doi.org/10.3390/healthcare12232488